I really don't see a significant increase in spending just because people are out of lines more. Most people travel on a budget, this restricts how much they can purchase, and it doesn't increase because they are not standing in a line. While they may go up, I don't think it will be a significant amount.
I would say that anyone leaving the parks with a fastpass(as long as there isn't a legitimate reason such as cranky kids that need naps) is a bad thing for Disney. If people really see it that they need to leave the parks to have a good time, then you can't say they are having a good time at the parks. If people aren't having a good time at the parks, they won't return and will tell other people that they didn't have a good time causing possible future guests to choose not to go. While this may not be an issue now or the near future, I think it will eventually be a big enough problem that it easily overtakes the extra brought from the extra snack and merch sales.
While it may be true that wait times don't double because of fastpass, they do increase significantly. Even if they only went up .1 hours, that is still only 10 non-fastpass rides to add up to the savings of their fastpass. If this is all the wait times are increasing, I think it is believable that they can reach that number. If they choose to ride a different fast pass ride it would still only take 3 non-fastpass rides to get to the savings. This is even more believable because the fastpass attractions are the attractions most people want to ride. If they choose to take 2 fastpass attractions, their savings are more than used at that point. Unless you can get a fastpass for every attraction that has them, you are going to see an increased wait time overall. This is the key, the fact that you are generally only going to be able to get 1 every day means that you will quickly use up the savings of that one. The average wait time for the attraction might not change, but when you look at an entire day for a single person, they are waiting longer overall.
Most of what I base the significant increase wait times on is comparing my Disney experience as a small child to my Disney experience now. When I was a kid, we would always be going in peak season(timing around school, what can you do) and I was scared of most attractions so I spent most of my time in fantasyland. Even at peak, I think I rarely ever had to wait over an hour(Of course, at that age it always felt much longer), and I don't think I ever saw lines extending past the queue entrance. Now I only go in the off season and I avoid fantasyland like the plague. It's not because I don't like the attractions, but because they waits are consistently over an hour, the lines spill into the walkways from just about every attraction, and I don't think the attractions are worth the hassle of going through there. If it was only as bad as I remember, I wouldn't hesitate to go through there again. I have talked with a number of people that have gone before and after fastpass, and I get that they are having the same reaction. Again, we try to go in the off season because there are fewer people. We find now that it doesn't matter when we go, the parks always feel crowded. This gets frustrating for us as we went in the off season specifically because it would normally be less crowded, if it's not, it doesn't matter when you go.
Fastpass may look good on paper, but I think in practice it is a failure. When you look at how fast the wait saved by fastpass is used up by extended wait times everywhere else, you are almost guaranteed to be waiting longer for everything overall, allowing you to do less in a given day.
BRWombat wrote:I know you're not looking to have your mind changed... but if average wait time is down, most people are waiting less, and that's a good thing. You say some people who don't perceive that get irate. Well, if so I blame their own judgment more than Disney, and regardless, I don't think the perception problem is quite what you think it is.
You need to keep in mind that the cost of lowering the average wait time at a few attractions is an increased average wait time everywhere else. These increased wait times easily lead to an overall increase in time waited specifically because anyone is limited to 1-2 fastpasses at best(I can imagine a handful of people getting lucky and getting more than that, but it is extremely rare). And you're right, it is mostly a perception problem, but that is something Disney should be concerned about because it is directly related to people coming back and recommending it to their family, friends, and neighbors.