Your FP says 9:40...it's 6:15..

[WEDFan]

WEDFan, you sound like an Industrial Engineer. (not that there's anything wrong with that)

Uh, oh. That must mean I did bore people. :D: Not an IE, though. Systems Architect. Similar.

I'm no longer IE, so feel free to make fun of it. But yeah, WEDFan, you basically summarized the fun exciting internal documents of the IE department.

Well, that puts the final nail in the coffin. If it reads like a summary of an internal document!

[kurtisnelson]

To the capacity statements: Over the past year, improvements equivalent to an extra E-ticket worth of capacity have been made at each of the parks. That's why there have been so many refurbishments, especially at Magic Kingdom. Currently, FastPass, except on the 99 percentile days, is operating at a far lower ratio than designed at most attractions. If you visit on a design day or emptier, you shouldn't really have any complaints about wait times and fastpass raising them. However, as soon as you cross the 80th percentile, you slip into damage control mode. Here, fastpass tends to be dialed up to it's original ~85% of capacity in an attempt to minimize the number of people waiting in the long lines. On these days, you can definitely get an attraction done every two hours by properly using fastpass. Without it, while waits would be shorter than they are with it, they would still average over an hour, while design day targets an average wait of 20 minutes across priority attractions.
With Fastpass implemented, 85% of Guests don't have to wait over 15 minutes. This actually lowers the average wait. Math:
(85*15+15*120)/100 = 30.
So the average wait for the attraction can still be 30 minutes on New Year's Eve. I think that is definitely a positive thing. Without Fastpass, the 120 minute wait would have to go all the way down to 30 minutes to achieve the same average. With priority attractions, this is not going to happen, as per simple economics as cost goes down demand increases. It's very rare even on empty days to see Space Mountain much lower than 30 minutes.

[Shorty82]

This might be changed with a free package pick-up system(I admit that I don't know if such a system is in place yet, it could be a challenge due to the numbers of people in park on a given day) where you could just pick everything up on your way out. At the same time you can question if they are buying anything they wouldn't already have had they waited until the end of the day.

Disney has offered complimentary Package Pick-up and Resort Delivery services for many years, long before Fastpass came into being. Anything a guest buys, except for food or snack items, can be sent either to the front of the park or to their Disney Resort (and a few non-Disney hotels). It takes 3 hours for packages to get to the front of the park and it is the next afternoon for resort deliveries.

The exact pickup location for Package Pick-up is just before you exit the park (it's exact location varies by park) and Resort Deliveries go to the resort's main gift shop for the Disney resorts and, I believe, the front desk of the non-Disney hotels.

These details are specific for WDW though DLR offers similar services. Mainstreeter or another DLR Merchandise CM can give the specifics on how it works over there.

If you ever want to make use of these services all you have to do is ask when you're being rung out or if you decide to do it later any gift shop can help you out even if you didn't buy the items from that particular shop (having the receipt helps a lot in these cases but normally isn't required).

[Lasolimu]

To the capacity statements: Over the past year, improvements equivalent to an extra E-ticket worth of capacity have been made at each of the parks. That's why there have been so many refurbishments, especially at Magic Kingdom. Currently, FastPass, except on the 99 percentile days, is operating at a far lower ratio than designed at most attractions. If you visit on a design day or emptier, you shouldn't really have any complaints about wait times and fastpass raising them. However, as soon as you cross the 80th percentile, you slip into damage control mode. Here, fastpass tends to be dialed up to it's original ~85% of capacity in an attempt to minimize the number of people waiting in the long lines. On these days, you can definitely get an attraction done every two hours by properly using fastpass. Without it, while waits would be shorter than they are with it, they would still average over an hour, while design day targets an average wait of 20 minutes across priority attractions.
With Fastpass implemented, 85% of Guests don't have to wait over 15 minutes. This actually lowers the average wait. Math:
(85*15+15*120)/100 = 30.
So the average wait for the attraction can still be 30 minutes on New Year's Eve. I think that is definitely a positive thing. Without Fastpass, the 120 minute wait would have to go all the way down to 30 minutes to achieve the same average. With priority attractions, this is not going to happen, as per simple economics as cost goes down demand increases. It's very rare even on empty days to see Space Mountain much lower than 30 minutes.

I think this exactly where the problem comes from, you're looking to cut the average wait time down, but the people that are pushed to the end don't see that, they see how long they have to wait. This is simply a numbers game to make it seem like it works. Any attraction has a cap capacity, they can never go above it without major changes(like the refurbishments could do). This factored with the number of people that want to ride is what determines average wait time, allowing some people to wait less isn't going to change this as it will even out from the people waiting more.

Now think of attractions without fastpass. People with a fastpass will go out and do something else, the increased numbers of people with fastpasses out in the park make it feel more crowded. In general people hate navigating crowds, this means they are likely to do one of two things, get in line for something else or exit the park and do something else in the mean time(this is much less likely). What this means is that there are more people standing in lines that don't have fastpass. These also have a maximum capacity meaning the increased people in line increase wait time. Often these people pick another fastpass attraction(They have fastpass because they are popular) and wait in that standby line which is increased a lot because of the fastpass line. The increased wait times for all attractions easily make up for the short wait time with the fastpass.

Now consider that most of the time fastpasses go so fast you can generally get 1, maybe 2 if you're lucky. Let's say that the wait time for all fast pass attractions would be 1.25 hours if fastpass didn't exist, .25 hours with a fastpass and 2 hours without, and that none fastpass attractions would have a .5 hour wait but have a 1 hour wait.
You get a fastpass that will save you an hour, within 2 attractions you've used up what you've gained. If you've happened to stand in the standby queue for a fastpass attraction, you are likely to get frustrated seeing all of them go ahead of you(most people think about the now, and don't see that they'll do that to people later or did before). Add the fact that (attractions enjoyed - fastpasses used)/fastpassses used is very likely to be greater than 2, you are waiting in line longer overall.

Now consider people that don't like the fastpass rides for whatever reason. They wait in longer lines without a fastpass to make up for it. Are they less important guests? I don't think so at all, so is it fair that they end up waiting longer for the same things because other attractions have fastpass? Not at all.

You can say that the average wait time for that specific attraction is the same, but there are a lot more variables to consider that simply aren't in that model. When looked at as a whole the average wait time per person(which is what the guests care about and directly effects if they will come back) will go up.

[WEDFan]

I admit that in my case everything is based on anecdotal data. I have no experience with DLR at all, and I don't go during the very busy times at WDW, so take all this with a grain of salt. I can say with certainty that I have both eaten and shopped while being in a virtual queue (I love the package delivery options ;) )

I completely agree that people have to eat regardless, that makes meals a wash, but snacks are, I think a different matter. I think many people would pass on the snacks if it meant missing attractions. If your in a line, you might be hungry, but by the time you come out it may be too close to a meal time to make a snack useful. I would also make the observation that snacks seem to have a better (from the Disney perspective) price point than meals. High margins -- less costs in facilities and labor.

As far as shopping goes, there are always people in the stores -- not just at the end of the day. Every extra minute a guest spends in a store results, in terms of averages, in more spending. It's a numbers game. I have some experience in retail/marketing systems, so I know this to be true.

So, on to attractions. When I'm there, walk ons exist all the time. By walk on I mean any queue where you basically keep walking at a moderate pace or any large-scale expereince where the only wait is the cycle time. I do think, as Lasolimu pointed out, that Fastpass increases wait times on non-Fastpass attractions. Wait times for Fastpass attractions themselves shouldn't go up, though. The virtual queue manages that. For the non-Fastpass attractions, there are a lot more of them than there are Fastpass attractions. I don't know the figures, but I'd be willing to bet that there is a lot more cumulative capacity in non-Fastpass attractions, not to mention excess capacity. So every person who is avoiding the majority of the line on a Fastpass attraction goes to one of 4 locations: food, shopping, non-attraction areas, or other attractions. The two factors (cumulative capacity and multiple destinations) dilute the impact on wait times for the other attractions, so I can't see a doubling of those times. The overall average wait time per person MUST go down under these conditions. Time is fixed, but you will have increased the utilization of other facilities and attractions for the population that uses Fastpass. That means that for the same number of people over the same amount of time, more things will have been done. Thus, a decrease in the average time standing in queues.

I'm also not sure I buy the theory that people are more frustrated if the rest of the park seems busier. Maybe that's just me, but waiting more than 30 minutes in a queue is a whole lot more frustrating than having crowds. I'm not saying that more people on pathways, for example, isn't frustrating (especially when a group of SG's decides to stop dead in front of you and you're dying to accidentally run them over :twisted: ), but I'd take that over the very long queues. I'm much better if I can at least be moving. Same applies on the highway. I'd rather avoid a traffic jam by travelling out of my way even if there is no actual savings of time.

It is true that someone who doesn't like any of the Fastpass attractions will see their wait times increase, and that isn't fair, but is there really any system that will be fair to everyone? That's why I said earlier that I thought Fastpass was a good compromise. I've got to think the number of people who don't like any of the Fastpass attractions is pretty darned small to begin with. If it was just for the thrill rides, I could see that, but Fastpass is used for a lot of attractions that appeal to a very broad range of customers. Almost anyone copming through any of the gates can get a benefit from Fastpass on something they like, but would have a huge line otherwise. Oh, and the only Fastpass attraction I have ever been unable to get a pass for when I wanted one was TSMM, so long as I got to the park by early afternoon.

Kutis, thanks for the capacity numbers. Interesting reading. :D:

[BRWombat]

I think this exactly where the problem comes from, you're looking to cut the average wait time down, but the people that are pushed to the end don't see that, they see how long they have to wait. This is simply a numbers game to make it seem like it works. Any attraction has a cap capacity, they can never go above it without major changes(like the refurbishments could do). This factored with the number of people that want to ride is what determines average wait time, allowing some people to wait less isn't going to change this as it will even out from the people waiting more.

I know you're not looking to have your mind changed... but if average wait time is down, most people are waiting less, and that's a good thing. You say some people who don't perceive that get irate. Well, if so I blame their own judgment more than Disney, and regardless, I don't think the perception problem is quite what you think it is.

Even given a more-crowded feeling park (because of fewer people in line), my thought process usually goes, "Hey, look how busy it is, and yet we've still been able to ride --- and --- and ---..." :D:

[Lasolimu]

I really don't see a significant increase in spending just because people are out of lines more. Most people travel on a budget, this restricts how much they can purchase, and it doesn't increase because they are not standing in a line. While they may go up, I don't think it will be a significant amount.

I would say that anyone leaving the parks with a fastpass(as long as there isn't a legitimate reason such as cranky kids that need naps) is a bad thing for Disney. If people really see it that they need to leave the parks to have a good time, then you can't say they are having a good time at the parks. If people aren't having a good time at the parks, they won't return and will tell other people that they didn't have a good time causing possible future guests to choose not to go. While this may not be an issue now or the near future, I think it will eventually be a big enough problem that it easily overtakes the extra brought from the extra snack and merch sales.

While it may be true that wait times don't double because of fastpass, they do increase significantly. Even if they only went up .1 hours, that is still only 10 non-fastpass rides to add up to the savings of their fastpass. If this is all the wait times are increasing, I think it is believable that they can reach that number. If they choose to ride a different fast pass ride it would still only take 3 non-fastpass rides to get to the savings. This is even more believable because the fastpass attractions are the attractions most people want to ride. If they choose to take 2 fastpass attractions, their savings are more than used at that point. Unless you can get a fastpass for every attraction that has them, you are going to see an increased wait time overall. This is the key, the fact that you are generally only going to be able to get 1 every day means that you will quickly use up the savings of that one. The average wait time for the attraction might not change, but when you look at an entire day for a single person, they are waiting longer overall.

Most of what I base the significant increase wait times on is comparing my Disney experience as a small child to my Disney experience now. When I was a kid, we would always be going in peak season(timing around school, what can you do) and I was scared of most attractions so I spent most of my time in fantasyland. Even at peak, I think I rarely ever had to wait over an hour(Of course, at that age it always felt much longer), and I don't think I ever saw lines extending past the queue entrance. Now I only go in the off season and I avoid fantasyland like the plague. It's not because I don't like the attractions, but because they waits are consistently over an hour, the lines spill into the walkways from just about every attraction, and I don't think the attractions are worth the hassle of going through there. If it was only as bad as I remember, I wouldn't hesitate to go through there again. I have talked with a number of people that have gone before and after fastpass, and I get that they are having the same reaction. Again, we try to go in the off season because there are fewer people. We find now that it doesn't matter when we go, the parks always feel crowded. This gets frustrating for us as we went in the off season specifically because it would normally be less crowded, if it's not, it doesn't matter when you go.

Fastpass may look good on paper, but I think in practice it is a failure. When you look at how fast the wait saved by fastpass is used up by extended wait times everywhere else, you are almost guaranteed to be waiting longer for everything overall, allowing you to do less in a given day.

I know you're not looking to have your mind changed... but if average wait time is down, most people are waiting less, and that's a good thing. You say some people who don't perceive that get irate. Well, if so I blame their own judgment more than Disney, and regardless, I don't think the perception problem is quite what you think it is.

You need to keep in mind that the cost of lowering the average wait time at a few attractions is an increased average wait time everywhere else. These increased wait times easily lead to an overall increase in time waited specifically because anyone is limited to 1-2 fastpasses at best(I can imagine a handful of people getting lucky and getting more than that, but it is extremely rare). And you're right, it is mostly a perception problem, but that is something Disney should be concerned about because it is directly related to people coming back and recommending it to their family, friends, and neighbors.

[kurtisnelson]

Lasolimu, by the numbers, Fastpass is a quantitative improvement. You have a valid point though that it may upset some people, but with such a large business, you have to go with averages and majorities. If adding something sees an increase in scores, it is beneficial to business. Also remember that Disney has enough reputation that if they scare off 1% of customers they can easily replace them via the referrals from the other 99% who benefit.

WEDway has it perfectly. It is all about the overall utilization of the park (utilization in the stochastic sense) Internally, WDW divides attractions into 3 categories: FP Preferred Attractions, non-FP preferred, and non-preferred. FP is removed from an attraction if it falls into the non-preferred bin, IE Philhar and Stitch. In addition, what actually matters is utilization during sustained demand. On a design day, sustained demand for preferreds occurs from noon to 3PM. This is the time of day where cast performance really makes a difference in utilization. During the other times, if there is not sustained demand (which basically means a wait of >15 minutes), utilization is a useless metric. Before fastpass, the utilization of preferred attractions during sustained demand was already at 99% or more (Space often breaks 100% utilization). But for the non-preferreds, utilization was low, think 50-60%, leaving tons of capacity for Guests to be doing something other than waiting. With fastpass, the overall park utilization increases. This means, on average, more rides per capita. RPC is what drives park hours and staffing, for Magic Kingdom everything that can feasibly done is done to keep RPC above 8.0. (This is where we hit union limitations and business rules, such as minimum turn around times between close and open.) So with fastpass, it benefits both the business and the customer, on average, the customer experiences a higher RPC at a same or lesser cost for the business. This has lead to an increase in utilization at the C-tickets, actually giving justification for refurbs of things such as TTA and the Worldshowcase attractions. Plus the best benefit: During no fastpass periods (EMH, hard ticket), the lines feel even shorter because of the speed at which they move.

Note: Universal really should take note of this stuff, it'd improve the experience greatly. In addition, I found it surprising how much I learned without having any type of NDAs or other protections.

[Lasolimu]

Lasolimu, by the numbers, Fastpass is a quantitative improvement. You have a valid point though that it may upset some people, but with such a large business, you have to go with averages and majorities. If adding something sees an increase in scores, it is beneficial to business. Also remember that Disney has enough reputation that if they scare off 1% of customers they can easily replace them via the referrals from the other 99% who benefit.

I just don't see that this is the case when I visit, I always feel like I'm getting to do less in the same time. Meaning that to do everything I want requires more time and I have to add days to trips to do the same amount. Now, this could be because there is more that I want to do, or that what I want to do has a longer wait, but I don't think so because I see everything with a significantly increased wait time. Like I said, everything looks good on paper, it all works in theory, but there are simply variables that can not be considered when designing the theory and I think that is where the problems come from. I will give one of my experiences with fastpass as an example. I have once stood in a standby line for a fastpass attraction(had just picked up a different fastpass so couldn't get one) and I found myself standing still in line for long stretches of time while the CM at merge waited for more fastpasses to come in so they could force the ratio. This lead to an even higher wait time for standby then there should have been because there was no one using fastpasses at the time. Granted this is a human error, but I imagine I am not the only person to see that. This is a major factor that simply cannot be factored in and leads to increased wait times.

I understand the theory of it, but I don't see it actually working that way in practice.

[WEDFan]

Again, Kurtis has the numbers to back up my empirical observations. :D:

Just a couple of further elaborations from me, though.

I really don't see a significant increase in spending just because people are out of lines more. Most people travel on a budget, this restricts how much they can purchase, and it doesn't increase because they are not standing in a line. While they may go up, I don't think it will be a significant amount.

People certainly travel on a budget, but between the people who don't stick to that budget :whistlng: and the people who will underspend their budget unless Disney actively pursues those dollars, there is always money on the table. Also, due to fixed overhead, last dollar profitability is way higher than first dollar. In other words, those extra dollars you eek out at the end are worth more to your bottom line than the base dollars you get for admission, etc.

Unless you can get a fastpass for every attraction that has them, you are going to see an increased wait time overall. This is the key, the fact that you are generally only going to be able to get 1 every day means that you will quickly use up the savings of that one. The average wait time for the attraction might not change, but when you look at an entire day for a single person, they are waiting longer overall.

You need to keep in mind that the cost of lowering the average wait time at a few attractions is an increased average wait time everywhere else. These increased wait times easily lead to an overall increase in time waited specifically because anyone is limited to 1-2 fastpasses at best(I can imagine a handful of people getting lucky and getting more than that, but it is extremely rare).

I'm not really following your reasoning on this one. Maybe I'm just being obtuse. Here's the angle I'm approaching it from. If you look at attraction lists, even allowing for rehabs and seasonal attractions, there are about 3 non-FP attractions for each FP. Let's lump some other things into groups: food, shopping, live entertainment, and common areas. On average, the wait time you avoid on the FP attraction gets divided among 7 other things. Now, many of those other things are not going to see their wait time go up at all or significantly. Examples include all the non-attraction items; walking trails in AK; Wedway, Philharmagic, Steam trains in MK; stunt shows in DHS; movies and Innoventions in Epcot. Bascially these attractions have a great enough capacity that the add-ons in terms of absolute numbers of people are rounding errors. This is what I meant before about diluting. On average, given that so many will see no impact, the rise in wait times for non-FP attractions should be very small. Also, I'm not sure where the 1 or 2 Fastpasses per day comes from. As I said before, I've only ever had an issue with TSMM.

Fastpass may look good on paper, but I think in practice it is a failure. When you look at how fast the wait saved by fastpass is used up by extended wait times everywhere else, you are almost guaranteed to be waiting longer for everything overall, allowing you to do less in a given day.

To me it seems like you are almost guaranteed to wait less time. As a simple example, say I only had an hour and a half at the park. Without Fastpass, I do one E-ticket ride. 60 minutes waiting 15 minutes on an attraction. 15 minutes free. With Fastpass, I do one E and one C. 10 minutes getting my FP, 30 minutes waiting (15 and 15), 30 minutes on an attraction (15 and 15), 20 minutes Free. Now expand that throughout a day. I'm there for the same amount of time, but my wait time is reduced and I did more things, so wait/attraction average is even less. And that's why I think most of the perceptions will be positive.

I hope you don't feel that I'm :deadhors: But a greatly enjoy a good debate, and it has been fun exercising my mind. :D: