kurtisnelson wrote:That doesn't make sense to me. Since a spot is saved in a virtual queue, if someone does not show up, their spot is still saved, just pushed aside. The system does not know that they didn't show, therefore continues distributing normally...
Okay, let's think about this -- having arrived late for FPs myself, I've always been curious whether it makes a difference or not. I'll try to dust off memories of the queue simulations I did for a statistics class in college!
Pulling numbers out of the air, let's say a ride has a capacity of 1000 guests per hour, and it is in demand and operating at capacity. 1000 guests are going to ride each hour, whether they are Fastpass or standby. Let's further say the system gives out 500 FPs for each hour, so that if everyone uses the FP and returns during their allotted hour, half of the riding guests will come from the FP queue, and half will come from the standby queue. So a normal period of time would look like this:
12p-1p SB: 500 FP: 500
1p-2p SB: 500 FP: 500
2p-3p SB: 500 FP: 500
3p-4p SB: 500 FP: 500
4p-5p SB: 500 FP: 500
Okay so far? Well, what if, say, 200 guests with a 12p-1p return time do not show? Only 300 guests come through the FP queue, but the attraction still has a 1000 guest/hr capacity, so the additional 200 guests would likely be drawn from the standby queue. In other words, the SB queue would move faster during any hour where FP returns are less than expected.
So, then, what if all 200 of those FPs show up at the 3p-4p hour, along with the FP guests actually slated for that time slot? You'd have 700 FPs instead of 500. The effect this would have on the individual queues would depend on the CM at merge. If the ratio is kept at 50/50, then the standby queue would keep flowing as normal, but the Fastpass guests would be in for a longer wait. More likely, the merge CM would increase the ratio of FP guests to SB guests so that all 700 FPs can ride, and the number of SB guests would be reduced, increasing their wait. Our chart would then look like this:
12p-1p SB:
700 FP:
300
1p-2p SB: 500 FP: 500
2p-3p SB: 500 FP: 500
3p-4p SB:
300 FP:
700
4p-5p SB: 500 FP: 500
So... it looks like exactly what you'd expect: the standby line will move faster when fewer FPs show up, and it will move slower when more than expected show up (and may to some extent affect the FP queue the same way, depending on the merge ratio -- plus a late-arriving 3p-4p FP guest would find himself behind 700 people instead of the expected 500).
True, the net result to the
entire system is neutral, and the attraction still hosts 1000 guests per hour either way. But there would be a definite effect on individual queues (and guests) as the flow of FP returns varies. The guests in line when you
don't show up benefit from your absence, and the guests in line when you
do show up pay the price.
Personally, I'm all for the current policy, as long as it's not abused. Sometimes it's hard to time your return, and I appreciate having the extra leeway in case we don't make it back before the end time. BUT I don't think it's correct to say that there is no effect.