Post
by Amphigorey » Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:20 pm
Obviously I don't have access to Disney's statistics, but here's my off-the-cuff analysis of why it's fine to use FastPasses late.
Disney distributes a certain number of FPs for each time window. This number is based on how many guests can enter the attraction and keep the FP wait time under 15 minutes. Once that number is reached, the FP distribution time moves up, and so on throughout the day.
So let's say 100 FPs are issued for a 1 - 2 pm return. Most - let's say 60 - of those people will return within that window, which means the wait time falls as expected. Of those 40 people who don't, some won't use the pass at all, and others will return at a later time. The people who come back later will be distributed throughout the day; some will come back at 3, some 4, some not until 7, and so on. Some people will also assume that if they miss the time window, they can't use the FP, and won't try. The point is that for any given time, only a couple people at most will be using those 1 - 2 pm passes.
Someone earlier made the point that the later you wait to ride, the more people will have FPs from earlier in the day. That's true and is a good point, but I don't think the number of people returning with late FPs is significant enough to really make much of a difference in your wait time. I think the only time it will make a real difference is if you are visiting on a very crowded day and Disney is pushing that FP 15-minute wait to its very limit - and even then, hey, you're still only waiting 15 minutes on a crowded day, which is a pretty good outcome.
Anyway, my point is that late-returning FPs don't make a statistically significant difference in the wait times for the other time windows, which is why Disney continues to allow them. If that ever changes, they can always start enforcing the end time.